Opatija 2–1 Dinamo Zagreb II: Result & Stats

Opatija

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Dinamo Zagreb II

B. Bilobrk 81'

K. Glavaš 79'

B. Karrica 31'

12/5/2020

First NL · Round 16Stadion Kantrida

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Opatija50%

×Draw26%

Dinamo Zagreb II23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OpatijaExpected goals in this matchDinamo Zagreb II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

0.91

Opatija

1.48

Dinamo Zagreb II

0.91

Opatija creates 63% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 55 away

1.34

creates per match

0.93

0.89

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Opatija

1.34

Dinamo Zagreb II

0.93

allows per match

Opatija

0.89

Dinamo Zagreb II

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Opatija+0.00on par

Dinamo Zagreb II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Opatija ↓

Dinamo Zagreb II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Opatija or draw

77%

Opatija or Dinamo Zagreb II

74%

Draw or Dinamo Zagreb II

50%

Winning margin

Opatija wins by 2+

25%

Dinamo Zagreb II wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Opatija 1+ goals

77%

Opatija 2+ goals

43%

Opatija 3+ goals

19%

Dinamo Zagreb II 1+ goals

60%

Dinamo Zagreb II 2+ goals

23%

Dinamo Zagreb II 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Opatija (draw refunded)

68%

Dinamo Zagreb II (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Opatija at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.89 · 65 matches

Dinamo Zagreb II away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.62 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Opatija attack 1.34 + Dinamo Zagreb II defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.48

Dinamo Zagreb II attack 0.93 + Opatija defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Opatija scores more

50%

level

26%

Dinamo Zagreb II scores more

23%

Opatija at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Opatija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

J. Pintarić← B. Bogolin

31'

B. Karrica

46'

F. Fumić← F. Ivančić

58'

K. Glavaš← N. Mohorovičić

58'

M. Furijan← J. Pintarić

74'

B. Bilobrk← E. Junuzovic

79'

K. Glavaš

80'

I. Pejić← M. Vukotić

81'

B. Bilobrk

84'

T. Krizmanić← I. Svržnjak

90'

90'

90+1'

90+1'

Opatija

Dinamo

6

1

4

3

5

10

7

▼

Vukotić

2

Kapitanov

8

Janković

9

▼

Svržnjak

11

⚽

Karrica

11

▼

12

2

20

3

16

6

14

17

▼

Mohorovič

9

▼

Bogolin

13

▼

Junuzovic

Manager: B. Milanović

23'▲J. Pintarić←▼B. Bogolin

46'▲F. Fumić←▼F. Ivančić

58'▲K. Glavaš←▼N. Mohorovičić

58'▲M. Furijan←▼J. Pintarić

74'▲B. Bilobrk←▼E. Junuzovic

Opatija substitutes

5Pintarić4Fumić8Glavaš10Furijan7Bilobrk18Lazić15Rosić19Čanković1Milić

Manager: I. Prelec

80'▲I. Pejić←▼M. Vukotić

84'▲T. Krizmanić←▼I. Svržnjak

Dinamo Zagreb II substitutes

15Pejić14Krizmanić13Bošković17Fotso16Kekez19Parger12Šarkanj18Kušec

Match Recap: Opatija vs Dinamo Zagreb II

Opatija beat Dinamo Zagreb II 2-1 in First NL on December 5, 2020.

Goals: B. Karrica (31'), K. Glavaš (79'), B. Bilobrk (81').

The match was played at Stadion Kantrida in Rijeka.

Opatija vs Dinamo Zagreb II — First NL 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Opatija vs Dinamo Zagreb II