Dinamo Zagreb II 2–1 Opatija: Result & Stats

Dinamo Zagreb II

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Opatija

J. Vasilj 51'

S. Milić 31'

L. Kožić 11'

9/15/2021

First NL · Round 5Stadion Kranjčevićeva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Dinamo Zagreb II50%

×Draw27%

Opatija23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo Zagreb IIExpected goals in this matchOpatija

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

0.88

Dinamo Zagreb II

1.43

Opatija

0.88

Dinamo Zagreb II creates 63% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 65 away

1.51

creates per match

0.94

0.82

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Dinamo Zagreb II

1.51

Opatija

0.94

allows per match

Dinamo Zagreb II

0.82

Opatija

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Zagreb II+0.00on par

Opatija+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Zagreb II ↓

Opatija →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Dinamo Zagreb II or draw

77%

Dinamo Zagreb II or Opatija

73%

Draw or Opatija

50%

Winning margin

Dinamo Zagreb II wins by 2+

25%

Opatija wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Dinamo Zagreb II 1+ goals

76%

Dinamo Zagreb II 2+ goals

42%

Dinamo Zagreb II 3+ goals

17%

Opatija 1+ goals

59%

Opatija 2+ goals

22%

Opatija 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Zagreb II (draw refunded)

68%

Opatija (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Zagreb II at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.82 · 55 matches

Opatija away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.35 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Zagreb II attack 1.51 + Opatija defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.43

Opatija attack 0.94 + Dinamo Zagreb II defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Dinamo Zagreb II scores more

50%

level

27%

Opatija scores more

23%

Dinamo Zagreb II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Dinamo Zagreb II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

L. Kožić

28'

L. Kozic

31'

S. Milić

35'

L. Kozic

35'

L. Kozic

45'

B. Bilobrk

45+1'

T. Palic

46'

F. Brekalo II← T. Palić

46'

M. Mamic← D. Gyamfi

46'

K. Glavaš← M. Belančić

46'

E. Maloku← V. Heteši

46'

A. Pejanović← B. Bilobrk

51'

J. Vasilj

56'

F. Fumić← M. Klapan

60'

B. Barisic← I. Laća

65'

I. Zgrablić← M. Bertoša

66'

G. Rukavina← V. Rozić

77'

I. Chernyak← I. Šaranić

78'

K. Glavas

83'

I. Zgrablic

85'

M. Jukicic

90+4'

T. Maloku

Dinamo

Opatija

5

▼

Belančić

16

▼

Heteši

1

Baždarić

24

▼

22

13

6

10

▼

Klapan

11

⚽

Kožić

17

Bjelanovi

19

▼

Bilobrk

11

▼

Rozić

1

Čavlina

4

⚽

Milić

2

▼

Gyamfi

3

▼

Palić

5

Katinić

10

Vukotić

8

⚽

Vasilj

6

Duvnjak

7

▼

Šaranić

9

▼

Laća

Manager: I. Cvitanović

46'▲F. Brekalo II←▼T. Palić

46'▲M. Mamic←▼D. Gyamfi

60'▲B. Barisic←▼I. Laća

66'▲G. Rukavina←▼V. Rozić

77'▲I. Chernyak←▼I. Šaranić

Dinamo Zagreb II substitutes

13II14Mamic20Barisic19Rukavina16Chernyak18Crnac17Svržnjak15Hyun-Woo12Zadro

Manager: T. Čizmarević

46'▲K. Glavaš←▼M. Belančić

46'▲E. Maloku←▼V. Heteši

46'▲A. Pejanović←▼B. Bilobrk

56'▲F. Fumić←▼M. Klapan

65'▲I. Zgrablić←▼M. Bertoša

Opatija substitutes

8Glavaš23Maloku14Pejanović4Fumić20Zgrablić7Ivančić12Berković18Petrović