Oostende 3–1 Zulte Waregem: Result & Stats

Oostende

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Zulte Waregem

8/24/2018

Jupiler Pro League · Round 5Versluys Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Oostende41%

×Draw23%

Zulte Waregem36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OostendeExpected goals in this matchZulte Waregem

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.54

Oostende

1.66

Zulte Waregem

1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 86 home / 101 away

1.37

creates per match

1.31

1.76

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

Oostende

1.37

Zulte Waregem

1.31

allows per match

Oostende

1.76

Zulte Waregem

1.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oostende+0.00on par

Zulte Waregem+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oostende ↓

Zulte Waregem →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Oostende or draw

64%

Oostende or Zulte Waregem

77%

Draw or Zulte Waregem

59%

Winning margin

Oostende wins by 2+

21%

Zulte Waregem wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Oostende 1+ goals

81%

Oostende 2+ goals

49%

Oostende 3+ goals

23%

Zulte Waregem 1+ goals

79%

Zulte Waregem 2+ goals

45%

Zulte Waregem 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Oostende (draw refunded)

53%

Zulte Waregem (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oostende at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.76 · 86 matches

Zulte Waregem away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.95 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oostende attack 1.37 + Zulte Waregem defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.66

Zulte Waregem attack 1.31 + Oostende defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Oostende scores more

41%

level

23%

Zulte Waregem scores more

36%

Oostende at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Oostende will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff