Oostende 6–2 Standard Liege: Result & Stats

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OostendeExpected goals in this matchStandard Liege

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.48

Oostende

1.46

Standard Liege

1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 84 home / 152 away

1.38

creates per match

1.19

1.76

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Oostende

1.38

Standard Liege

1.19

allows per match

Oostende

1.76

Standard Liege

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oostende+0.00on par

Standard Liege+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oostende ↓

Standard Liege →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Oostende or draw

62%

Oostende or Standard Liege

75%

Draw or Standard Liege

63%

Winning margin

Oostende wins by 2+

18%

Standard Liege wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Oostende 1+ goals

77%

Oostende 2+ goals

43%

Oostende 3+ goals

18%

Standard Liege 1+ goals

77%

Standard Liege 2+ goals

43%

Standard Liege 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Oostende (draw refunded)

49%

Standard Liege (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oostende at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.76 · 84 matches

Standard Liege away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.55 · 152 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oostende attack 1.38 + Standard Liege defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.46

Standard Liege attack 1.19 + Oostende defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Oostende scores more

37%

level

25%

Standard Liege scores more

38%

Standard Liege at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Standard Liege will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

M. D'Arpino

Oostende · M

8.7

Match Events

18'

Fashion SakalaGoal cancelled

27'

Mehdi Carcela-González

30'

M. Kvasina↳ R. D'Haese

39'

N. Bätzner↳ A. Hjulsager

44'

A. Theate↳ M. D'Arpino

45'

J. Muleka↳ N. Gavory

45+2'

M. Carcela-González↳ J. Muleka

50'

Mehdi Carcela-González

50'

Mehdi Carcela-González

54'

B. Capon← J. Hendry

60'

M. Balikwisha← S. Bastien

60'

D. Pavlovic← S. Amallah

62'

Brecht Capon

62'

Arthur Theate

64'

A. Hjulsager↳ F. Sakala

68'

A. Delferriere← C. Fai

73'

K. Vandendriessche← N. Bätzner

78'

Michel Ange Balikwisha

81'

M. Lestienne← N. Dussenne

86'

Fashion SakalaGoal cancelled

89'

Allan Michael Delferriere

90'

M. Thiam← F. Sakala

90'

I. Boonen← A. Hjulsager

90'

T. Matam← R. DHaese

90+3'

T. Matam↳ K. Vandendriessche

90+6'

I. Boonen↳ M. Kvasina

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OostendeStandard

Overview

48%Possession52%

19Total Shots12

5Corners2

19Fouls12

Shots

19Total Shots12

8On Target6

11Off Target2

0Blocked4

9Inside Box11

10Outside Box1

Passing

48%Possession52%

355Total Passes384

261Accurate Passes284

74%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

19Fouls12

2Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

5Offsides4