Oostende 2–4 KV Mechelen: Result & Stats

Oostende

FT

2 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

KV Mechelen

F. Jäkel 81'

M. Gueye 56'

G. Hairemans 89'

K. Mrabti 50', 37'

H. Cuypers 26'

10/29/2021

Jupiler Pro League · Round 13Diaz Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Oostende38%

×Draw24%

KV Mechelen38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OostendeExpected goals in this matchKV Mechelen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.52

Oostende

1.53

KV Mechelen

1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 83 home / 130 away

1.34

creates per match

1.25

1.78

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Oostende

1.34

KV Mechelen

1.25

allows per match

Oostende

1.78

KV Mechelen

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oostende+0.00on par

KV Mechelen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oostende ↓

KV Mechelen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Oostende or draw

62%

Oostende or KV Mechelen

76%

Draw or KV Mechelen

62%

Winning margin

Oostende wins by 2+

18%

KV Mechelen wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Oostende 1+ goals

78%

Oostende 2+ goals

45%

Oostende 3+ goals

20%

KV Mechelen 1+ goals

78%

KV Mechelen 2+ goals

45%

KV Mechelen 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Oostende (draw refunded)

50%

KV Mechelen (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oostende at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.78 · 83 matches

KV Mechelen away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.72 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oostende attack 1.34 + KV Mechelen defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.53

KV Mechelen attack 1.25 + Oostende defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Oostende scores more

38%

level

24%

KV Mechelen scores more

38%

Oostende at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Oostende will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

K. Mrabti

KV Mechelen · M

8.6

Match Events

6'

26'

37'

40'

46'

46'

50'

K. Mrabti↳ H. Cuypers

51'

V. Koziello← M. DArpino

56'

M. Gueye↳ N. Bätzner

62'

R. D'Haese← A. Tanghe

69'

Nick Batzner

70'

G. Hairemans← N. Storm

71'

Samuel Oum Gouet

78'

I. Swers← K. Mrabti

78'

F. Druijf← H. Cuypers

81'

F. Jäkel↳ Kenny Rocha Santos

85'

Makhtar Gueye

89'

G. Hairemans↳ R. Schoofs

90+3'

90+2'

90+1'

90+3'

90+2'

90+3'

I. de Camargo← R. Schoofs

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OostendeKV

Overview

53%Possession47%

14Total Shots8

7Corners1

15Fouls14

Shots

14Total Shots8

4On Target4

8Off Target4

2Blocked0

5Inside Box5

9Outside Box3

Passing

53%Possession47%

444Total Passes393

296Accurate Passes253

67%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

15Fouls14

6Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

3Offsides3