Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Oostende vs KV Mechelen — Jupiler Pro League 2018

Oostende
Oostende
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
KV Mechelen
KV Mechelen
F. Sakala 20', 5'
S. Bateau 63'
F. Druijf 47'
5/19/2021Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Conference League Play-off Group - 5Diaz Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Oostende38%
×Draw24%
KV Mechelen38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oostende
1.53
KV Mechelen
1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 83 home / 130 away

creates per match

Oostende
1.34
KV Mechelen
1.25

allows per match

Oostende
1.78
KV Mechelen
1.72

finishing

Oostende+0.00on par
KV Mechelen+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oostende ↓

KV Mechelen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Oostende or draw
62%
Oostende or KV Mechelen
76%
Draw or KV Mechelen
62%

Winning margin

Oostende wins by 2+
18%
KV Mechelen wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Oostende 1+ goals
78%
Oostende 2+ goals
45%
Oostende 3+ goals
20%
KV Mechelen 1+ goals
78%
KV Mechelen 2+ goals
45%
KV Mechelen 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Oostende (draw refunded)
50%
KV Mechelen (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oostende at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.78 · 83 matches

KV Mechelen away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.72 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oostende attack 1.34 + KV Mechelen defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.53

KV Mechelen attack 1.25 + Oostende defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Oostende scores more
38%
level
24%
KV Mechelen scores more
38%

Oostende at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Oostende will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26
Kevin VandendriesscheOostendeOostende · M
8.3

Match Events

5'
F. Sakala↳ I. Boonen
20'
F. Sakala
40'
A. Vranckx
42'
F. Jakel
47'
F. Druijf↳ S. Walsh
51'
G. Hubert
63'
S. Bateau↳ R. Schoofs
67'
A. Hjulsager← M. Kvasina
69'
K. Vandendriessche
76'
G. Hairemans← I. de Camargo
80'
M. D'Arpino← N. Batzner
81'
A. Vranckx
81'
A. Vranckx
88'
K. Mrabti← I. Kabore
88'
M. Shved← O. Kaya
90'
F. Sakala← M. Thiam
90+1'
F. Marquet← F. Marquet

Possession

47%Oostende

Shots

17Oostende

Pass accuracy

48%Oostende

Statistics

OostendeKV
Overview
47%Possession53%
17Total Shots10
6Corners3
13Fouls12
Shots
17Total Shots10
5On Target3
9Off Target5
3Blocked2
12Inside Box8
5Outside Box2
Passing
47%Possession53%
395Total Passes441
280Accurate Passes344
71%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
13Fouls12
3Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards1
0Offsides3

Jupiler Pro League: Oostende 2–2 KV Mechelen

Oostende and KV Mechelen drew 2-2 in Jupiler Pro League on May 19, 2021.

Goals: F. Sakala (5', 20'), F. Druijf (47'), S. Bateau (63').

KV Mechelen controlled possession (53%) and registered 10 shots to 17.

The match was played at Diaz Arena in Oostende.