Oostende 1–2 Cercle Brugge: Result & Stats

Oostende

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Cercle Brugge

T. Ambrose 66' (pen)

D. Hotić 90+1'

A. Ueda 24'

1/21/2023

Jupiler Pro League · Round 22Diaz Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Oostende39%

×Draw25%

Cercle Brugge37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OostendeExpected goals in this matchCercle Brugge

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.46

Oostende

1.50

Cercle Brugge

1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 84 home / 142 away

1.38

creates per match

1.17

1.76

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Oostende

1.38

Cercle Brugge

1.17

allows per match

Oostende

1.76

Cercle Brugge

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oostende+0.00on par

Cercle Brugge+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oostende ↓

Cercle Brugge →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Oostende or draw

63%

Oostende or Cercle Brugge

75%

Draw or Cercle Brugge

61%

Winning margin

Oostende wins by 2+

19%

Cercle Brugge wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Oostende 1+ goals

78%

Oostende 2+ goals

44%

Oostende 3+ goals

19%

Cercle Brugge 1+ goals

77%

Cercle Brugge 2+ goals

43%

Cercle Brugge 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Oostende (draw refunded)

51%

Cercle Brugge (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oostende at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.76 · 84 matches

Cercle Brugge away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.61 · 142 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oostende attack 1.38 + Cercle Brugge defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.50

Cercle Brugge attack 1.17 + Oostende defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Oostende scores more

39%

level

25%

Cercle Brugge scores more

37%

Oostende at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Oostende will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

D. Hotić

Cercle Brugge · M

7.5

Match Events

24'

A. Ueda↳ H. Siquet

58'

D. Atanga← N. Bätzner

58'

P. Dwomoh← Kenny Rocha Santos

60'

Alfons Amade

64'

Théo Ndicka MatamPenalty confirmed

65'

Hugo Siquet

66'

T. AmbrosePenalty

67'

David Atanga

78'

Thierry AmbrosePenalty cancelled

82'

Y. Gboho← H. Siquet

88'

O. Urhoghide← P. Dwomoh

88'

D. Hotić← K. Denkey

90'

Thierry Ambrose

90+1'

D. Hotić↳ Y. Gboho

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OostendeCercle

Overview

53%Possession47%

9Total Shots11

4Corners6

11Fouls16

Shots

9Total Shots11

4On Target6

2Off Target2

3Blocked3

5Inside Box6

4Outside Box5

Passing

53%Possession47%

332Total Passes300

166Accurate Passes135

50%Pass Accuracy45%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls16

3Yellow Cards1

8Offsides7

Jupiler Pro League: Oostende 1–2 Cercle Brugge

Cercle Brugge beat Oostende 2-1 in Jupiler Pro League on January 21, 2023.

Goals: A. Ueda (24'), T. Ambrose (66' pen), D. Hotić (90+1').

Oostende controlled possession (53%) and registered 9 shots to 11.

The match was played at Diaz Arena in Oostende.

Oostende vs Cercle Brugge — Jupiler Pro League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Jupiler Pro League: Oostende 1–2 Cercle Brugge