Oostende 2–1 Cercle Brugge: Result & Stats

Oostende

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Cercle Brugge

A. Amade 90'

M. Gueye 75'

T. Somers 66'

10/16/2021

Jupiler Pro League · Round 11Diaz Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Oostende39%

×Draw25%

Cercle Brugge37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OostendeExpected goals in this matchCercle Brugge

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.46

Oostende

1.50

Cercle Brugge

1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 84 home / 142 away

1.38

creates per match

1.17

1.76

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Oostende

1.38

Cercle Brugge

1.17

allows per match

Oostende

1.76

Cercle Brugge

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oostende+0.00on par

Cercle Brugge+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oostende ↓

Cercle Brugge →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Oostende or draw

63%

Oostende or Cercle Brugge

75%

Draw or Cercle Brugge

61%

Winning margin

Oostende wins by 2+

19%

Cercle Brugge wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Oostende 1+ goals

78%

Oostende 2+ goals

44%

Oostende 3+ goals

19%

Cercle Brugge 1+ goals

77%

Cercle Brugge 2+ goals

43%

Cercle Brugge 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Oostende (draw refunded)

51%

Cercle Brugge (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oostende at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.76 · 84 matches

Cercle Brugge away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.61 · 142 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oostende attack 1.38 + Cercle Brugge defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.50

Cercle Brugge attack 1.17 + Oostende defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Oostende scores more

39%

level

25%

Cercle Brugge scores more

37%

Oostende at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Oostende will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

M. D'Arpino

Oostende · M

7.9

Match Events

30'

Thibo Somers

35'

Thierry Ambrose

46'

A. Tanghe← Kenny Rocha Santos

56'

Edgaras Utkus

63'

D. Hotič← C. Vanhoutte

66'

T. Somers↳ Álex Millán

75'

M. Gueye↳ M. D'Arpino

76'

O. Deman← T. Somers

76'

R. Decostere← Vitinho

79'

M. Kvasina← T. Ambrose

79'

V. Koziello← N. Bätzner

81'

Waldo Rubio← A. Corryn

82'

R. Matondo← Álex Millán

86'

E. Patoulidis← T. Matam

89'

David Sousa

90'

Rabbi Matondo

90'

A. Amade↳ F. Jäkel

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OostendeCercle

Overview

54%Possession46%

12Total Shots12

4Corners4

9Fouls15

Shots

12Total Shots12

3On Target4

4Off Target5

5Blocked3

9Inside Box6

3Outside Box6

Passing

54%Possession46%

381Total Passes322

240Accurate Passes180

63%Pass Accuracy56%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

9Fouls15

1Yellow Cards4

3Offsides7