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Oostende vs Cercle Brugge — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Oostende
Oostende
FT
3 – 1
Cercle Brugge
Cercle Brugge
8/1/2020Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Diaz Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Oostende39%
×Draw23%
Cercle Brugge39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oostende
1.67
Cercle Brugge
1.67

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 9 away

creates per match

Oostende
1.33
Cercle Brugge
1.33

allows per match

Oostende
2.00
Cercle Brugge
2.00

finishing

Oostende+0.00on par
Cercle Brugge+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oostende ↓

Cercle Brugge →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Oostende or draw
61%
Oostende or Cercle Brugge
77%
Draw or Cercle Brugge
61%

Winning margin

Oostende wins by 2+
19%
Cercle Brugge wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Oostende 1+ goals
81%
Oostende 2+ goals
50%
Oostende 3+ goals
23%
Cercle Brugge 1+ goals
81%
Cercle Brugge 2+ goals
50%
Cercle Brugge 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Oostende (draw refunded)
50%
Cercle Brugge (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oostende at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Cercle Brugge away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oostende attack 1.33 + Cercle Brugge defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.67

Cercle Brugge attack 1.33 + Oostende defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Oostende scores more
39%
level
23%
Cercle Brugge scores more
39%

Oostende at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Oostende will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Oostende vs Cercle Brugge

Oostende beat Cercle Brugge 3-1 in Friendlies Clubs on August 1, 2020.

The match was played at Diaz Arena in Oostende.