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Onze Créateurs vs Étoiles Mandé — Première Division 2019

Onze Créateurs
Onze Créateurs
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Étoiles Mandé
Étoiles Mandé
Unknown 82', 43'
4/19/2025Première DivisionPremière Division · Round 18Stade Mamadou Konaté

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Onze Créateurs48%
×Draw28%
Étoiles Mandé23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Onze Créateurs
1.34
Étoiles Mandé
0.84

Onze Créateurs creates 60% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 13 away

creates per match

Onze Créateurs
1.14
Étoiles Mandé
0.77

allows per match

Onze Créateurs
0.92
Étoiles Mandé
1.54

finishing

Onze Créateurs+0.00on par
Étoiles Mandé+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Onze Créateurs ↓

Étoiles Mandé →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Onze Créateurs or draw
77%
Onze Créateurs or Étoiles Mandé
72%
Draw or Étoiles Mandé
52%

Winning margin

Onze Créateurs wins by 2+
23%
Étoiles Mandé wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Onze Créateurs 1+ goals
74%
Onze Créateurs 2+ goals
39%
Onze Créateurs 3+ goals
15%
Étoiles Mandé 1+ goals
57%
Étoiles Mandé 2+ goals
21%
Étoiles Mandé 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Onze Créateurs (draw refunded)
67%
Étoiles Mandé (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Onze Créateurs at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.92 · 93 matches

Étoiles Mandé away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Onze Créateurs attack 1.14 + Étoiles Mandé defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.34

Étoiles Mandé attack 0.77 + Onze Créateurs defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Onze Créateurs scores more
48%
level
28%
Étoiles Mandé scores more
23%

Onze Créateurs at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Onze Créateurs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

43'
82'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Onze Créateurs vs Étoiles Mandé

Onze Créateurs beat Étoiles Mandé 2-0 in Première Division on April 19, 2025.

Goals: ? (43', 82').

The match was played at Stade Mamadou Konaté in Bamako.