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Étoiles Mandé vs Onze Créateurs — Première Division 2019

Étoiles Mandé
Étoiles Mandé
FT
1 – 2
Onze Créateurs
Onze Créateurs
1/2/2025Première DivisionPremière Division · Round 5Stade Centre Salif Keita

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Étoiles Mandé23%
×Draw30%
Onze Créateurs47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Étoiles Mandé
0.74
Onze Créateurs
1.21

Onze Créateurs creates 64% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 97 away

creates per match

Étoiles Mandé
0.62
Onze Créateurs
0.96

allows per match

Étoiles Mandé
1.46
Onze Créateurs
0.86

finishing

Étoiles Mandé+0.00on par
Onze Créateurs+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Étoiles Mandé ↓

Onze Créateurs →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–117%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Étoiles Mandé or draw
53%
Étoiles Mandé or Onze Créateurs
70%
Draw or Onze Créateurs
77%

Winning margin

Étoiles Mandé wins by 2+
7%
Onze Créateurs wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Étoiles Mandé 1+ goals
52%
Étoiles Mandé 2+ goals
17%
Étoiles Mandé 3+ goals
4%
Onze Créateurs 1+ goals
70%
Onze Créateurs 2+ goals
34%
Onze Créateurs 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Étoiles Mandé (draw refunded)
32%
Onze Créateurs (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Étoiles Mandé at home — creates 0.62, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

Onze Créateurs away — creates 0.96, concedes 0.86 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Étoiles Mandé attack 0.62 + Onze Créateurs defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.74

Onze Créateurs attack 0.96 + Étoiles Mandé defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Étoiles Mandé scores more
23%
level
30%
Onze Créateurs scores more
47%

Onze Créateurs at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Onze Créateurs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Étoiles Mandé vs Onze Créateurs

Onze Créateurs beat Étoiles Mandé 2-1 in Première Division on January 2, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Centre Salif Keita in Bamako.