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Onze Créateurs vs COB — Première Division 2019

Onze Créateurs
Onze Créateurs
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
COB
COB
6/4/2023Première DivisionPremière Division · Round 22Terrain ABM Foot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Onze Créateurs41%
×Draw30%
COB30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Onze Créateurs
1.17
COB
0.95

Onze Créateurs creates 23% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 66 away

creates per match

Onze Créateurs
1.14
COB
0.98

allows per match

Onze Créateurs
0.92
COB
1.20

finishing

Onze Créateurs+0.00on par
COB+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Onze Créateurs ↓

COB →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Onze Créateurs or draw
70%
Onze Créateurs or COB
70%
Draw or COB
59%

Winning margin

Onze Créateurs wins by 2+
17%
COB wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Onze Créateurs 1+ goals
69%
Onze Créateurs 2+ goals
33%
Onze Créateurs 3+ goals
11%
COB 1+ goals
61%
COB 2+ goals
25%
COB 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Onze Créateurs (draw refunded)
58%
COB (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Onze Créateurs at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.92 · 93 matches

COB away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.20 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Onze Créateurs attack 1.14 + COB defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.17

COB attack 0.98 + Onze Créateurs defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Onze Créateurs scores more
41%
level
30%
COB scores more
30%

Onze Créateurs at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Onze Créateurs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Première Division: Onze Créateurs 4–0 COB

Onze Créateurs beat COB 4-0 in Première Division on June 4, 2023.

The match was played at Terrain ABM Foot in Samanyana.