Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

COB vs Onze Créateurs — Première Division 2019

COB
COB
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Onze Créateurs
Onze Créateurs
12/27/2023Première DivisionPremière Division · Round 11Terrain Stade Malien Bamako

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

COB30%
×Draw32%
Onze Créateurs38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

COB
0.86
Onze Créateurs
1.02

Onze Créateurs creates 19% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 97 away

creates per match

COB
0.86
Onze Créateurs
0.96

allows per match

COB
1.09
Onze Créateurs
0.86

finishing

COB+0.00on par
Onze Créateurs+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

COB ↓

Onze Créateurs →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–116%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

COB or draw
62%
COB or Onze Créateurs
68%
Draw or Onze Créateurs
70%

Winning margin

COB wins by 2+
10%
Onze Créateurs wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

COB 1+ goals
58%
COB 2+ goals
21%
COB 3+ goals
6%
Onze Créateurs 1+ goals
64%
Onze Créateurs 2+ goals
27%
Onze Créateurs 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

COB (draw refunded)
44%
Onze Créateurs (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

COB at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.09 · 66 matches

Onze Créateurs away — creates 0.96, concedes 0.86 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

COB attack 0.86 + Onze Créateurs defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.86

Onze Créateurs attack 0.96 + COB defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

COB scores more
30%
level
32%
Onze Créateurs scores more
38%

Onze Créateurs at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Onze Créateurs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Première Division: COB 0–1 Onze Créateurs

Onze Créateurs beat COB 1-0 in Première Division on December 27, 2023.

The match was played at Terrain Stade Malien Bamako in Bamako.