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Ontinyent 1931 vs La Nucía — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Ontinyent 1931
Ontinyent 1931
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
La Nucía
La Nucía
11/16/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 11Estadio Municipal El Clariano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Ontinyent 193134%
×Draw33%
La Nucía33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ontinyent 1931
0.88
La Nucía
0.87

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 36 away

creates per match

Ontinyent 1931
1.08
La Nucía
1.11

allows per match

Ontinyent 1931
0.63
La Nucía
0.67

finishing

Ontinyent 1931+0.00on par
La Nucía+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ontinyent 1931 ↓

La Nucía →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–115%
0–27%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
52%48%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Ontinyent 1931 or draw
67%
Ontinyent 1931 or La Nucía
67%
Draw or La Nucía
66%

Winning margin

Ontinyent 1931 wins by 2+
12%
La Nucía wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Ontinyent 1931 1+ goals
59%
Ontinyent 1931 2+ goals
22%
Ontinyent 1931 3+ goals
6%
La Nucía 1+ goals
58%
La Nucía 2+ goals
22%
La Nucía 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Ontinyent 1931 (draw refunded)
50%
La Nucía (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ontinyent 1931 at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.63 · 51 matches

La Nucía away — creates 1.11, concedes 0.67 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ontinyent 1931 attack 1.08 + La Nucía defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.88

La Nucía attack 1.11 + Ontinyent 1931 defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 34%?"

Ontinyent 1931 scores more
34%
level
33%
La Nucía scores more
33%

Ontinyent 1931 at 34% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 34% does not mean "Ontinyent 1931 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ontinyent 1931 1 – 1 La Nucía

Ontinyent 1931 and La Nucía drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on November 16, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal El Clariano in Ontinyent.