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La Nucía vs Ontinyent 1931 — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

La Nucía
La Nucía
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Ontinyent 1931
Ontinyent 1931
1/25/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 19Estadi Olímpic Camilo Cano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

La Nucía48%
×Draw27%
Ontinyent 193125%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

La Nucía
1.38
Ontinyent 1931
0.90

La Nucía creates 53% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 51 away

creates per match

La Nucía
1.53
Ontinyent 1931
0.98

allows per match

La Nucía
0.81
Ontinyent 1931
1.22

finishing

La Nucía+0.00on par
Ontinyent 1931+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

La Nucía ↓

Ontinyent 1931 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

La Nucía or draw
75%
La Nucía or Ontinyent 1931
73%
Draw or Ontinyent 1931
52%

Winning margin

La Nucía wins by 2+
23%
Ontinyent 1931 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

La Nucía 1+ goals
75%
La Nucía 2+ goals
40%
La Nucía 3+ goals
16%
Ontinyent 1931 1+ goals
59%
Ontinyent 1931 2+ goals
23%
Ontinyent 1931 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

La Nucía (draw refunded)
66%
Ontinyent 1931 (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

La Nucía at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.81 · 36 matches

Ontinyent 1931 away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.22 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

La Nucía attack 1.53 + Ontinyent 1931 defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.38

Ontinyent 1931 attack 0.98 + La Nucía defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

La Nucía scores more
48%
level
27%
Ontinyent 1931 scores more
25%

La Nucía at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "La Nucía will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

La Nucía 1 – 1 Ontinyent 1931

La Nucía and Ontinyent 1931 drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on January 25, 2025.

The match was played at Estadi Olímpic Camilo Cano in La Nucia.