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Ontinyent 1931 vs Hércules II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Ontinyent 1931
Ontinyent 1931
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Hércules II
Hércules II
4/26/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 32Estadio Municipal El Clariano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Ontinyent 193146%
×Draw31%
Hércules II23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ontinyent 1931
1.15
Hércules II
0.72

Ontinyent 1931 creates 60% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 78 away

creates per match

Ontinyent 1931
1.08
Hércules II
0.81

allows per match

Ontinyent 1931
0.63
Hércules II
1.22

finishing

Ontinyent 1931+0.00on par
Hércules II+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ontinyent 1931 ↓

Hércules II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Ontinyent 1931 or draw
77%
Ontinyent 1931 or Hércules II
69%
Draw or Hércules II
54%

Winning margin

Ontinyent 1931 wins by 2+
20%
Hércules II wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Ontinyent 1931 1+ goals
68%
Ontinyent 1931 2+ goals
32%
Ontinyent 1931 3+ goals
11%
Hércules II 1+ goals
51%
Hércules II 2+ goals
16%
Hércules II 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Ontinyent 1931 (draw refunded)
67%
Hércules II (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ontinyent 1931 at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.63 · 51 matches

Hércules II away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.22 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ontinyent 1931 attack 1.08 + Hércules II defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.15

Hércules II attack 0.81 + Ontinyent 1931 defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Ontinyent 1931 scores more
46%
level
31%
Hércules II scores more
23%

Ontinyent 1931 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Ontinyent 1931 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6: Ontinyent 1931 0–1 Hércules II

Hércules II beat Ontinyent 1931 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on April 26, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal El Clariano in Ontinyent.