Hércules II 1–0 Ontinyent 1931: Result & Stats

Hércules II

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Ontinyent 1931

12/20/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 15Ciudad Deportiva de Alicante F-11

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Hércules II39%

×Draw29%

Ontinyent 193132%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hércules IIExpected goals in this matchOntinyent 1931

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.02

Hércules II

1.17

Ontinyent 1931

1.02

Hércules II creates 15% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 51 away

1.12

creates per match

0.98

1.06

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Hércules II

1.12

Ontinyent 1931

0.98

allows per match

Hércules II

1.06

Ontinyent 1931

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hércules II+0.00on par

Ontinyent 1931+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hércules II ↓

Ontinyent 1931 →

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Hércules II or draw

68%

Hércules II or Ontinyent 1931

71%

Draw or Ontinyent 1931

61%

Winning margin

Hércules II wins by 2+

17%

Ontinyent 1931 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Hércules II 1+ goals

69%

Hércules II 2+ goals

33%

Hércules II 3+ goals

11%

Ontinyent 1931 1+ goals

64%

Ontinyent 1931 2+ goals

27%

Ontinyent 1931 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Hércules II (draw refunded)

55%

Ontinyent 1931 (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Hércules II at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.06 · 78 matches

Ontinyent 1931 away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.22 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Hércules II attack 1.12 + Ontinyent 1931 defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.17

Ontinyent 1931 attack 0.98 + Hércules II defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 39%?"

Hércules II scores more

39%

level

29%

Ontinyent 1931 scores more

32%

Hércules II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Hércules II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hércules II vs Ontinyent 1931

Hércules II beat Ontinyent 1931 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on December 20, 2025.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva de Alicante F-11 in Alicante.

Hércules II vs Ontinyent 1931 — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Hércules II vs Ontinyent 1931