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Onsala vs Assyriska BK — Division 2 - Västra Götaland 2019

Onsala
Onsala
FT
3 – 1
Assyriska BK
Assyriska BK
9/25/2022Division 2 - Västra GötalandDivision 2 - Västra Götaland · Västra Götaland - 23Rydets IP A konstgräs

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Onsala63%
×Draw19%
Assyriska BK19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Onsala
2.45
Assyriska BK
1.27

Onsala creates 93% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 49 away

creates per match

Onsala
2.47
Assyriska BK
1.00

allows per match

Onsala
1.53
Assyriska BK
2.43

finishing

Onsala+0.00on par
Assyriska BK+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Onsala ↓

Assyriska BK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Onsala or draw
81%
Onsala or Assyriska BK
81%
Draw or Assyriska BK
37%

Winning margin

Onsala wins by 2+
41%
Assyriska BK wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Onsala 1+ goals
91%
Onsala 2+ goals
70%
Onsala 3+ goals
44%
Assyriska BK 1+ goals
72%
Assyriska BK 2+ goals
36%
Assyriska BK 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Onsala (draw refunded)
77%
Assyriska BK (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Onsala at home — creates 2.47, concedes 1.53 · 79 matches

Assyriska BK away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.43 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Onsala attack 2.47 + Assyriska BK defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.45

Assyriska BK attack 1.00 + Onsala defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Onsala scores more
63%
level
19%
Assyriska BK scores more
19%

Onsala at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Onsala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Onsala vs Assyriska BK

Onsala beat Assyriska BK 3-1 in Division 2 - Västra Götaland on September 25, 2022.

The match was played at Rydets IP A konstgräs in Onsala.