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Assyriska BK vs Onsala — Division 2 - Västra Götaland 2019

Assyriska BK
Assyriska BK
FT
0 – 6
HT: 0 – 2
Onsala
Onsala
5/25/2022Division 2 - Västra GötalandDivision 2 - Västra Götaland · Västra Götaland - 9Ruddalens IP 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Assyriska BK36%
×Draw23%
Onsala41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Assyriska BK
1.66
Onsala
1.79

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 48 home / 80 away

creates per match

Assyriska BK
1.58
Onsala
1.93

allows per match

Assyriska BK
1.65
Onsala
1.74

finishing

Assyriska BK+0.00on par
Onsala+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Assyriska BK ↓

Onsala →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Assyriska BK or draw
59%
Assyriska BK or Onsala
77%
Draw or Onsala
64%

Winning margin

Assyriska BK wins by 2+
18%
Onsala wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Assyriska BK 1+ goals
81%
Assyriska BK 2+ goals
49%
Assyriska BK 3+ goals
23%
Onsala 1+ goals
83%
Onsala 2+ goals
53%
Onsala 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Assyriska BK (draw refunded)
47%
Onsala (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Assyriska BK at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.65 · 48 matches

Onsala away — creates 1.93, concedes 1.74 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Assyriska BK attack 1.58 + Onsala defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.66

Onsala attack 1.93 + Assyriska BK defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Assyriska BK scores more
36%
level
23%
Onsala scores more
41%

Onsala at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Onsala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Assyriska BK vs Onsala

Onsala beat Assyriska BK 6-0 in Division 2 - Västra Götaland on May 25, 2022.

The match was played at Ruddalens IP 1 in Västra Frölunda.