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ONS Sneek vs Harkemase Boys — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

ONS Sneek
ONS Sneek
CANC
00:00
Harkemase Boys
Harkemase Boys
5/23/2020Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Zaterdag - 34Zuidersportpark (Sneek)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

ONS Sneek32%
×Draw21%
Harkemase Boys47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ONS Sneek
1.71
Harkemase Boys
2.11

Harkemase Boys creates 23% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 98 away

creates per match

ONS Sneek
1.82
Harkemase Boys
1.68

allows per match

ONS Sneek
2.55
Harkemase Boys
1.59

finishing

ONS Sneek+0.00on par
Harkemase Boys+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ONS Sneek ↓

Harkemase Boys →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

ONS Sneek or draw
53%
ONS Sneek or Harkemase Boys
79%
Draw or Harkemase Boys
68%

Winning margin

ONS Sneek wins by 2+
16%
Harkemase Boys wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

ONS Sneek 1+ goals
82%
ONS Sneek 2+ goals
51%
ONS Sneek 3+ goals
24%
Harkemase Boys 1+ goals
88%
Harkemase Boys 2+ goals
62%
Harkemase Boys 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

ONS Sneek (draw refunded)
40%
Harkemase Boys (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ONS Sneek at home — creates 1.82, concedes 2.55 · 11 matches

Harkemase Boys away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.59 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ONS Sneek attack 1.82 + Harkemase Boys defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.71

Harkemase Boys attack 1.68 + ONS Sneek defence 2.55 → ÷2 → 2.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

ONS Sneek scores more
32%
level
21%
Harkemase Boys scores more
47%

Harkemase Boys at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Harkemase Boys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

ONS Sneek face Harkemase Boys (Derde Divisie - Saturday)

Derde Divisie - Saturday returns with ONS Sneek hosting Harkemase Boys. Match starts May 23, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

ONS Sneek host Harkemase Boys at Zuidersportpark (Sneek).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.