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Harkemase Boys vs ONS Sneek — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

Harkemase Boys
Harkemase Boys
FT
3 – 2
ONS Sneek
ONS Sneek
1/11/2020Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Zaterdag - 17Sportpark de Bosk (Harkema)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Harkemase Boys70%
×Draw16%
ONS Sneek14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Harkemase Boys
2.80
ONS Sneek
1.19

Harkemase Boys creates 135% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 12 away

creates per match

Harkemase Boys
1.93
ONS Sneek
1.00

allows per match

Harkemase Boys
1.39
ONS Sneek
3.67

finishing

Harkemase Boys+0.00on par
ONS Sneek+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Harkemase Boys ↓

ONS Sneek →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Harkemase Boys or draw
86%
Harkemase Boys or ONS Sneek
84%
Draw or ONS Sneek
30%

Winning margin

Harkemase Boys wins by 2+
49%
ONS Sneek wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Harkemase Boys 1+ goals
94%
Harkemase Boys 2+ goals
76%
Harkemase Boys 3+ goals
52%
ONS Sneek 1+ goals
70%
ONS Sneek 2+ goals
33%
ONS Sneek 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Harkemase Boys (draw refunded)
83%
ONS Sneek (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Harkemase Boys at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.39 · 97 matches

ONS Sneek away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.67 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Harkemase Boys attack 1.93 + ONS Sneek defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 2.80

ONS Sneek attack 1.00 + Harkemase Boys defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Harkemase Boys scores more
70%
level
16%
ONS Sneek scores more
14%

Harkemase Boys at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Harkemase Boys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Saturday: Harkemase Boys 3–2 ONS Sneek

Harkemase Boys beat ONS Sneek 3-2 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on January 11, 2020.

The match was played at Sportpark de Bosk (Harkema).