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ONS Sneek vs Barendrecht — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

ONS Sneek
ONS Sneek
FT
3 – 2
Barendrecht
Barendrecht
11/30/2019Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Zaterdag - 14Zuidersportpark (Sneek)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

ONS Sneek31%
×Draw21%
Barendrecht48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ONS Sneek
1.75
Barendrecht
2.19

Barendrecht creates 25% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 50 away

creates per match

ONS Sneek
1.82
Barendrecht
1.84

allows per match

ONS Sneek
2.55
Barendrecht
1.68

finishing

ONS Sneek+0.00on par
Barendrecht+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ONS Sneek ↓

Barendrecht →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

ONS Sneek or draw
52%
ONS Sneek or Barendrecht
79%
Draw or Barendrecht
69%

Winning margin

ONS Sneek wins by 2+
16%
Barendrecht wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

ONS Sneek 1+ goals
83%
ONS Sneek 2+ goals
52%
ONS Sneek 3+ goals
25%
Barendrecht 1+ goals
89%
Barendrecht 2+ goals
64%
Barendrecht 3+ goals
37%

Draw no bet

ONS Sneek (draw refunded)
40%
Barendrecht (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ONS Sneek at home — creates 1.82, concedes 2.55 · 11 matches

Barendrecht away — creates 1.84, concedes 1.68 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ONS Sneek attack 1.82 + Barendrecht defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.75

Barendrecht attack 1.84 + ONS Sneek defence 2.55 → ÷2 → 2.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

ONS Sneek scores more
31%
level
21%
Barendrecht scores more
48%

Barendrecht at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Barendrecht will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Saturday: ONS Sneek 3–2 Barendrecht

ONS Sneek beat Barendrecht 3-2 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on November 30, 2019.

The match was played at Zuidersportpark (Sneek).