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Barendrecht vs ONS Sneek — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

Barendrecht
Barendrecht
CANC
00:00
ONS Sneek
ONS Sneek
3/21/2020Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Zaterdag - 26Sportpark De Bongerd veld 1 (Barendrecht)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Barendrecht69%
×Draw16%
ONS Sneek15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barendrecht
2.87
ONS Sneek
1.29

Barendrecht creates 122% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 12 away

creates per match

Barendrecht
2.07
ONS Sneek
1.00

allows per match

Barendrecht
1.59
ONS Sneek
3.67

finishing

Barendrecht+0.00on par
ONS Sneek+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barendrecht ↓

ONS Sneek →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Barendrecht or draw
85%
Barendrecht or ONS Sneek
84%
Draw or ONS Sneek
31%

Winning margin

Barendrecht wins by 2+
49%
ONS Sneek wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Barendrecht 1+ goals
94%
Barendrecht 2+ goals
77%
Barendrecht 3+ goals
53%
ONS Sneek 1+ goals
72%
ONS Sneek 2+ goals
37%
ONS Sneek 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Barendrecht (draw refunded)
82%
ONS Sneek (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barendrecht at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.59 · 46 matches

ONS Sneek away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.67 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barendrecht attack 2.07 + ONS Sneek defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 2.87

ONS Sneek attack 1.00 + Barendrecht defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Barendrecht scores more
69%
level
16%
ONS Sneek scores more
15%

Barendrecht at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Barendrecht will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Barendrecht vs ONS Sneek — Match Preview

Barendrecht face ONS Sneek on March 21, 2020 in this Derde Divisie - Saturday fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Barendrecht host ONS Sneek at Sportpark De Bongerd veld 1 (Barendrecht).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.