Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Onor vs Mika — First League 2019

Onor
Onor
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Mika
Mika
3/10/2024First LeagueFirst League · Round 19Kasakhi Marzik Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Onor39%
×Draw22%
Mika39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Onor
1.85
Mika
1.86

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 58 away

creates per match

Onor
1.00
Mika
1.02

allows per match

Onor
2.71
Mika
2.71

finishing

Onor+0.00on par
Mika+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Onor ↓

Mika →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Onor or draw
61%
Onor or Mika
78%
Draw or Mika
61%

Winning margin

Onor wins by 2+
21%
Mika wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Onor 1+ goals
84%
Onor 2+ goals
55%
Onor 3+ goals
28%
Mika 1+ goals
84%
Mika 2+ goals
55%
Mika 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Onor (draw refunded)
50%
Mika (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Onor at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.71 · 14 matches

Mika away — creates 1.02, concedes 2.71 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Onor attack 1.00 + Mika defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 1.85

Mika attack 1.02 + Onor defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Onor scores more
39%
level
22%
Mika scores more
39%

Onor at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Onor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Onor 1 – 4 Mika

Mika beat Onor 4-1 in First League on March 10, 2024.

The match was played at Kasakhi Marzik Stadium in Ashtarak.