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Mika vs Onor — First League 2019

Mika
Mika
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Onor
Onor
8/21/2023First LeagueFirst League · Round 4RCCSD Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Mika56%
×Draw21%
Onor23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mika
2.15
Onor
1.33

Mika creates 62% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 13 away

creates per match

Mika
0.91
Onor
0.69

allows per match

Mika
1.98
Onor
3.38

finishing

Mika+0.00on par
Onor+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mika ↓

Onor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Mika or draw
77%
Mika or Onor
79%
Draw or Onor
44%

Winning margin

Mika wins by 2+
34%
Onor wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Mika 1+ goals
88%
Mika 2+ goals
63%
Mika 3+ goals
36%
Onor 1+ goals
74%
Onor 2+ goals
38%
Onor 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Mika (draw refunded)
71%
Onor (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mika at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.98 · 56 matches

Onor away — creates 0.69, concedes 3.38 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mika attack 0.91 + Onor defence 3.38 → ÷2 → 2.15

Onor attack 0.69 + Mika defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Mika scores more
56%
level
21%
Onor scores more
23%

Mika at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Mika will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mika 1 – 1 Onor

Mika and Onor drew 1-1 in First League on August 21, 2023.

The match was played at RCCSD Stadium in Yerevan.