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One Knoxville vs Lexington — USL League One Cup 2024

One Knoxville
One Knoxville
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Lexington
Lexington
6/8/2024USL League One CupUSL League One Cup · Group Stage - 3Regal Soccer Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

One Knoxville33%
×Draw25%
Lexington42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

One Knoxville
1.33
Lexington
1.53

Lexington creates 15% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

One Knoxville
1.00
Lexington
1.67

allows per match

One Knoxville
1.40
Lexington
1.67

finishing

One Knoxville+0.00on par
Lexington+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

One Knoxville ↓

Lexington →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

One Knoxville or draw
58%
One Knoxville or Lexington
75%
Draw or Lexington
67%

Winning margin

One Knoxville wins by 2+
15%
Lexington wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

One Knoxville 1+ goals
74%
One Knoxville 2+ goals
38%
One Knoxville 3+ goals
15%
Lexington 1+ goals
78%
Lexington 2+ goals
45%
Lexington 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

One Knoxville (draw refunded)
44%
Lexington (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

One Knoxville at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Lexington away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

One Knoxville attack 1.00 + Lexington defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.33

Lexington attack 1.67 + One Knoxville defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

One Knoxville scores more
33%
level
25%
Lexington scores more
42%

Lexington at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Lexington will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: One Knoxville vs Lexington

One Knoxville beat Lexington 2-0 in USL League One Cup on June 8, 2024.

The match was played at Regal Soccer Stadium in Knoxville, Tennessee.