Lexington 0–0 One Knoxville: Result & Stats

Lexington

Pens

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

One Knoxville

8/10/2024

USL League One Cup · Group Stage - 4Toyota Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Lexington40%

×Draw32%

One Knoxville28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LexingtonExpected goals in this matchOne Knoxville

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

0.82

Lexington

1.05

One Knoxville

0.82

Lexington creates 28% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

1.50

creates per match

0.40

1.25

allows per match

0.60

creates per match

Lexington

1.50

One Knoxville

0.40

allows per match

Lexington

1.25

One Knoxville

0.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lexington+0.00on par

One Knoxville+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lexington ↓

One Knoxville →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–113%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Lexington or draw

72%

Lexington or One Knoxville

68%

Draw or One Knoxville

60%

Winning margin

Lexington wins by 2+

16%

One Knoxville wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Lexington 1+ goals

65%

Lexington 2+ goals

28%

Lexington 3+ goals

9%

One Knoxville 1+ goals

56%

One Knoxville 2+ goals

20%

One Knoxville 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Lexington (draw refunded)

59%

One Knoxville (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lexington at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

One Knoxville away — creates 0.40, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lexington attack 1.50 + One Knoxville defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.05

One Knoxville attack 0.40 + Lexington defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Lexington scores more

40%

level

32%

One Knoxville scores more

28%

Lexington at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Lexington will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff