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One Knoxville vs Asheville City — USL League Two 2026

One Knoxville
One Knoxville
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Asheville City
Asheville City
5/14/2022USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 4Austin-East High School Football Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

One Knoxville40%
×Draw24%
Asheville City36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

One Knoxville
1.58
Asheville City
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 42 away

creates per match

One Knoxville
2.22
Asheville City
2.21

allows per match

One Knoxville
0.78
Asheville City
0.95

finishing

One Knoxville+0.00on par
Asheville City+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

One Knoxville ↓

Asheville City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

One Knoxville or draw
64%
One Knoxville or Asheville City
76%
Draw or Asheville City
60%

Winning margin

One Knoxville wins by 2+
20%
Asheville City wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

One Knoxville 1+ goals
79%
One Knoxville 2+ goals
47%
One Knoxville 3+ goals
21%
Asheville City 1+ goals
78%
Asheville City 2+ goals
44%
Asheville City 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

One Knoxville (draw refunded)
52%
Asheville City (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

One Knoxville at home — creates 2.22, concedes 0.78 · 9 matches

Asheville City away — creates 2.21, concedes 0.95 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

One Knoxville attack 2.22 + Asheville City defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.58

Asheville City attack 2.21 + One Knoxville defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

One Knoxville scores more
40%
level
24%
Asheville City scores more
36%

One Knoxville at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "One Knoxville will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

One Knoxville 1 – 2 Asheville City

Asheville City beat One Knoxville 2-1 in USL League Two on May 14, 2022.

The match was played at Austin-East High School Football Field in Knoxville, Tennessee.