Asheville City 1–3 One Knoxville: Result & Stats

Asheville City

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

One Knoxville

6/21/2022

USL League Two · Round 44Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Asheville City41%

×Draw24%

One Knoxville36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Asheville CityExpected goals in this matchOne Knoxville

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.52

Asheville City

1.64

One Knoxville

1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 46 home / 7 away

2.57

creates per match

2.43

0.61

allows per match

0.71

creates per match

Asheville City

2.57

One Knoxville

2.43

allows per match

Asheville City

0.61

One Knoxville

0.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Asheville City+0.00on par

One Knoxville+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Asheville City ↓

One Knoxville →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Asheville City or draw

64%

Asheville City or One Knoxville

76%

Draw or One Knoxville

59%

Winning margin

Asheville City wins by 2+

21%

One Knoxville wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Asheville City 1+ goals

81%

Asheville City 2+ goals

49%

Asheville City 3+ goals

23%

One Knoxville 1+ goals

78%

One Knoxville 2+ goals

45%

One Knoxville 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Asheville City (draw refunded)

53%

One Knoxville (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Asheville City at home — creates 2.57, concedes 0.61 · 46 matches

One Knoxville away — creates 2.43, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Asheville City attack 2.57 + One Knoxville defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.64

One Knoxville attack 2.43 + Asheville City defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Asheville City scores more

41%

level

24%

One Knoxville scores more

36%

Asheville City at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Asheville City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Asheville City 1–3 One Knoxville

One Knoxville beat Asheville City 3-1 in USL League Two on June 21, 2022.

The match was played at Memorial Stadium in Asheville, North Carolina.

Asheville City vs One Knoxville — USL League Two 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

USL League Two: Asheville City 1–3 One Knoxville