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Onduparaka vs Kyetume — Premier League 2019

Onduparaka
Onduparaka
FT
3 – 1
Kyetume
Kyetume
2/19/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 8Green Light Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Onduparaka51%
×Draw26%
Kyetume23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Onduparaka
1.53
Kyetume
0.94

Onduparaka creates 63% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 26 away

creates per match

Onduparaka
1.19
Kyetume
0.81

allows per match

Onduparaka
1.07
Kyetume
1.88

finishing

Onduparaka+0.00on par
Kyetume+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Onduparaka ↓

Kyetume →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Onduparaka or draw
77%
Onduparaka or Kyetume
74%
Draw or Kyetume
49%

Winning margin

Onduparaka wins by 2+
26%
Kyetume wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Onduparaka 1+ goals
78%
Onduparaka 2+ goals
45%
Onduparaka 3+ goals
20%
Kyetume 1+ goals
61%
Kyetume 2+ goals
24%
Kyetume 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Onduparaka (draw refunded)
69%
Kyetume (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Onduparaka at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.07 · 54 matches

Kyetume away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.88 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Onduparaka attack 1.19 + Kyetume defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.53

Kyetume attack 0.81 + Onduparaka defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Onduparaka scores more
51%
level
26%
Kyetume scores more
23%

Onduparaka at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Onduparaka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Onduparaka 3–1 Kyetume

Onduparaka beat Kyetume 3-1 in Premier League on February 19, 2021.

The match was played at Green Light Stadium in Arua.