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Kyetume vs Onduparaka — Premier League 2019

Kyetume
Kyetume
CANC
12:00
Onduparaka
Onduparaka
6/26/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 29Nakisunga Saaza Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Kyetume43%
×Draw26%
Onduparaka30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kyetume
1.42
Onduparaka
1.14

Kyetume creates 25% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 55 away

creates per match

Kyetume
1.19
Onduparaka
0.93

allows per match

Kyetume
1.35
Onduparaka
1.64

finishing

Kyetume+0.00on par
Onduparaka+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kyetume ↓

Onduparaka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Kyetume or draw
70%
Kyetume or Onduparaka
74%
Draw or Onduparaka
57%

Winning margin

Kyetume wins by 2+
21%
Onduparaka wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Kyetume 1+ goals
76%
Kyetume 2+ goals
41%
Kyetume 3+ goals
17%
Onduparaka 1+ goals
68%
Onduparaka 2+ goals
32%
Onduparaka 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Kyetume (draw refunded)
59%
Onduparaka (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kyetume at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.35 · 26 matches

Onduparaka away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.64 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kyetume attack 1.19 + Onduparaka defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.42

Onduparaka attack 0.93 + Kyetume defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Kyetume scores more
43%
level
26%
Onduparaka scores more
30%

Kyetume at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Kyetume will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Kyetume host Onduparaka

June 26, 2021: Kyetume take on Onduparaka in Premier League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Kyetume host Onduparaka at Nakisunga Saaza Ground.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.