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Onduparaka vs Kitara — Premier League 2019

Onduparaka
Onduparaka
FT
2 – 1
Kitara
Kitara
N. Nasasira 63'
M. Ajobe 22'
N. Oloro 17'
4/13/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 17Green Light Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Onduparaka41%
×Draw28%
Kitara31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Onduparaka
1.29
Kitara
1.09

Onduparaka creates 18% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 57 away

creates per match

Onduparaka
1.19
Kitara
1.11

allows per match

Onduparaka
1.07
Kitara
1.40

finishing

Onduparaka+0.00on par
Kitara+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Onduparaka ↓

Kitara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Onduparaka or draw
69%
Onduparaka or Kitara
72%
Draw or Kitara
59%

Winning margin

Onduparaka wins by 2+
18%
Kitara wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Onduparaka 1+ goals
72%
Onduparaka 2+ goals
37%
Onduparaka 3+ goals
14%
Kitara 1+ goals
66%
Kitara 2+ goals
30%
Kitara 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Onduparaka (draw refunded)
57%
Kitara (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Onduparaka at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.07 · 54 matches

Kitara away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.40 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Onduparaka attack 1.19 + Kitara defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.29

Kitara attack 1.11 + Onduparaka defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Onduparaka scores more
41%
level
28%
Kitara scores more
31%

Onduparaka at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Onduparaka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'
N. Oloro
22'
M. Ajobe
32'
L. Kabon← L. Kabon
46'
Z. Kizito← Z. Kizito
55'
N. Sadam← N. Sadam
55'
J. Jangeyambe← J. Jangeyambe
63'
N. Nasasira
64'
J. Malish← J. Malish
64'
A. Mukiibi← A. Mukiibi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Onduparaka vs Kitara

Onduparaka beat Kitara 2-1 in Premier League on April 13, 2021.

Goals: N. Oloro (17'), M. Ajobe (22'), N. Nasasira (63').

The match was played at Green Light Stadium in Arua.