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Kitara vs Onduparaka — Premier League 2019

Kitara
Kitara
FT
1 – 3
Onduparaka
Onduparaka
B. Mayanja 87'
G. Matata 78', 74' (pen)
L. Kabon 59'
12/19/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 5Kavumba Recreation Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Kitara53%
×Draw24%
Onduparaka23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kitara
1.71
Onduparaka
1.03

Kitara creates 66% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 55 away

creates per match

Kitara
1.78
Onduparaka
0.93

allows per match

Kitara
1.14
Onduparaka
1.64

finishing

Kitara+0.00on par
Onduparaka+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kitara ↓

Onduparaka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Kitara or draw
77%
Kitara or Onduparaka
76%
Draw or Onduparaka
47%

Winning margin

Kitara wins by 2+
29%
Onduparaka wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Kitara 1+ goals
82%
Kitara 2+ goals
51%
Kitara 3+ goals
24%
Onduparaka 1+ goals
64%
Onduparaka 2+ goals
28%
Onduparaka 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Kitara (draw refunded)
70%
Onduparaka (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kitara at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.14 · 58 matches

Onduparaka away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.64 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kitara attack 1.78 + Onduparaka defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.71

Onduparaka attack 0.93 + Kitara defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Kitara scores more
53%
level
24%
Onduparaka scores more
23%

Kitara at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Kitara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

53'
J. Munihizi← J. Munihizi
55'
M. Okot← M. Okot
59'
L. Kabon
65'
D. Ssemakula← D. Ssemakula
66'
P. Sempira
72'
A. Muwonge
74'
G. MatataPenalty
78'
G. Matata
87'
B. Mayanja
90'
P. Mugume

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Kitara 1–3 Onduparaka

Onduparaka beat Kitara 3-1 in Premier League on December 19, 2020.

Goals: L. Kabon (59'), G. Matata (74' pen, 78'), B. Mayanja (87').

The match was played at Kavumba Recreation Center in Kayunga.