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Once Municipal vs Jocoro — Primera Division 2019

Once Municipal
Once Municipal
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Jocoro
Jocoro
4/14/2024Primera DivisionPrimera Division · Clausura - 17Estadio Arturo Simeón Magaña

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 103+ matches

Once Municipal47%
×Draw27%
Jocoro25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Once Municipal
1.38
Jocoro
0.93

Once Municipal creates 48% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 103 away

creates per match

Once Municipal
1.14
Jocoro
0.80

allows per match

Once Municipal
1.05
Jocoro
1.63

finishing

Once Municipal+0.00on par
Jocoro+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Once Municipal ↓

Jocoro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Once Municipal or draw
75%
Once Municipal or Jocoro
73%
Draw or Jocoro
53%

Winning margin

Once Municipal wins by 2+
23%
Jocoro wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Once Municipal 1+ goals
75%
Once Municipal 2+ goals
40%
Once Municipal 3+ goals
16%
Jocoro 1+ goals
61%
Jocoro 2+ goals
24%
Jocoro 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Once Municipal (draw refunded)
65%
Jocoro (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Once Municipal at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.05 · 118 matches

Jocoro away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.63 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Once Municipal attack 1.14 + Jocoro defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.38

Jocoro attack 0.80 + Once Municipal defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Once Municipal scores more
47%
level
27%
Jocoro scores more
25%

Once Municipal at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Once Municipal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera Division: Once Municipal 1–0 Jocoro

Once Municipal beat Jocoro 1-0 in Primera Division on April 14, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Arturo Simeón Magaña in Ahuachapán.