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Jocoro vs Once Municipal — Primera Division 2019

Jocoro
Jocoro
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Once Municipal
Once Municipal
2/10/2024Primera DivisionPrimera Division · Clausura - 6Complejo Deportivo Tierra de Fuego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

Jocoro44%
×Draw26%
Once Municipal30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jocoro
1.50
Once Municipal
1.19

Jocoro creates 26% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 122 away

creates per match

Jocoro
1.52
Once Municipal
1.02

allows per match

Jocoro
1.35
Once Municipal
1.47

finishing

Jocoro+0.00on par
Once Municipal+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jocoro ↓

Once Municipal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Jocoro or draw
70%
Jocoro or Once Municipal
74%
Draw or Once Municipal
56%

Winning margin

Jocoro wins by 2+
22%
Once Municipal wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Jocoro 1+ goals
78%
Jocoro 2+ goals
44%
Jocoro 3+ goals
19%
Once Municipal 1+ goals
70%
Once Municipal 2+ goals
33%
Once Municipal 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Jocoro (draw refunded)
60%
Once Municipal (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jocoro at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.35 · 101 matches

Once Municipal away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.47 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jocoro attack 1.52 + Once Municipal defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.50

Once Municipal attack 1.02 + Jocoro defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Jocoro scores more
44%
level
26%
Once Municipal scores more
30%

Jocoro at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Jocoro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jocoro vs Once Municipal

Once Municipal beat Jocoro 2-0 in Primera Division on February 10, 2024.

The match was played at Complejo Deportivo Tierra de Fuego in Jocoro.