Once Municipal 2–2 FAS: Result & Stats

Once Municipal

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

FAS

4/17/2025

Primera Division · Clausura - 19Estadio Arturo Simeón Magaña

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

Once Municipal35%

×Draw28%

FAS36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Once MunicipalExpected goals in this matchFAS

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.17

Once Municipal

1.15

FAS

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 118 home / 156 away

1.14

creates per match

1.28

1.05

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Once Municipal

1.14

FAS

1.28

allows per match

Once Municipal

1.05

FAS

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Once Municipal+0.00on par

FAS+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Once Municipal ↓

FAS →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Once Municipal or draw

64%

Once Municipal or FAS

72%

Draw or FAS

65%

Winning margin

Once Municipal wins by 2+

15%

FAS wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Once Municipal 1+ goals

68%

Once Municipal 2+ goals

32%

Once Municipal 3+ goals

11%

FAS 1+ goals

69%

FAS 2+ goals

33%

FAS 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Once Municipal (draw refunded)

49%

FAS (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Once Municipal at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.05 · 118 matches

FAS away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.17 · 156 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Once Municipal attack 1.14 + FAS defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.15

FAS attack 1.28 + Once Municipal defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Once Municipal scores more

35%

level

28%

FAS scores more

36%

FAS at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "FAS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff