FAS 1–2 Once Municipal: Result & Stats

FAS

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Once Municipal

10/24/2024

Primera Division · Apertura - 12Estadio Óscar Alberto Quiteño

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 122+ matches

FAS50%

×Draw26%

Once Municipal25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FASExpected goals in this matchOnce Municipal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.00

FAS

1.54

Once Municipal

1.00

FAS creates 54% more chances

Season form · 155 home / 122 away

1.60

creates per match

1.02

0.99

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

FAS

1.60

Once Municipal

1.02

allows per match

FAS

0.99

Once Municipal

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FAS+0.00on par

Once Municipal+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FAS ↓

Once Municipal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

FAS or draw

75%

FAS or Once Municipal

74%

Draw or Once Municipal

50%

Winning margin

FAS wins by 2+

26%

Once Municipal wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

FAS 1+ goals

79%

FAS 2+ goals

45%

FAS 3+ goals

20%

Once Municipal 1+ goals

63%

Once Municipal 2+ goals

26%

Once Municipal 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

FAS (draw refunded)

67%

Once Municipal (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FAS at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.99 · 155 matches

Once Municipal away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.47 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FAS attack 1.60 + Once Municipal defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.54

Once Municipal attack 1.02 + FAS defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

FAS scores more

50%

level

26%

Once Municipal scores more

25%

FAS at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "FAS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff