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Once Caldas vs Huracan — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

Once Caldas
Once Caldasadvanced
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Huracan
Huracan
D. Moreno 57' (pen)
8/12/2025CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · Round of 16Estadio Palogrande

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Once Caldas53%
×Draw30%
Huracan18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Once Caldas
1.27
Huracan
0.60

Once Caldas creates 112% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

creates per match

Once Caldas
1.29
Huracan
0.63

allows per match

Once Caldas
0.57
Huracan
1.25

finishing

Once Caldas+0.00on par
Huracan+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Once Caldas ↓

Huracan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Once Caldas or draw
82%
Once Caldas or Huracan
70%
Draw or Huracan
47%

Winning margin

Once Caldas wins by 2+
25%
Huracan wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Once Caldas 1+ goals
72%
Once Caldas 2+ goals
36%
Once Caldas 3+ goals
14%
Huracan 1+ goals
45%
Huracan 2+ goals
12%
Huracan 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Once Caldas (draw refunded)
75%
Huracan (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Once Caldas at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.57 · 7 matches

Huracan away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Once Caldas attack 1.29 + Huracan defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.27

Huracan attack 0.63 + Once Caldas defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Once Caldas scores more
53%
level
30%
Huracan scores more
18%

Once Caldas at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Once Caldas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23
K. A. Cuesta RodriguezOnce CaldasOnce Caldas · D
7.9

Match Events

46'
G. Alanis← R. Cabral
46'
L. Gimenez← M. Tissera
57'
D. MorenoPenalty
70'
I. Rojas← M. Zuleta
71'
P. Gomez← A. Garcia Castillo
82'
A. Urzi← J. Bisanz
83'
E. Beltran← L. Sanchez
83'
F. F. Waller Martiarena← L. Gil
84'
J. A. Zapata Ramirez← D. Moreno
89'
L. Carrizo← E. Ojeda

Possession

59%Once

Shots

11Once

Pass accuracy

53%Once

Statistics

OnceHuracan
Overview
59%Possession41%
11Total Shots6
1.72Expected Goals (xG)0.34
6Corners3
16Fouls15
Shots
11Total Shots6
7On Target2
2Off Target3
2Blocked1
6Inside Box4
5Outside Box2
Passing
59%Possession41%
467Total Passes322
390Accurate Passes245
84%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
2Saves6
Discipline
16Fouls15
1Offsides1

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: Once Caldas 1–0 Huracan

Once Caldas beat Huracan 1-0 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on August 12, 2025.

Goals: D. Moreno (57' pen).

Once Caldas controlled possession (59%) and registered 11 shots to 6.

The match was played at Estadio Palogrande in Manizales.