Huracan 1–3 Once Caldas: Result & Stats

Huracan

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Once Caldas

M. Miljevic 39' (pen)

D. Moreno 88', 40'

M. Barrios 65'

8/19/2025

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Round of 16Estadio Tomás Adolfo Ducó

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Huracan35%

×Draw25%

Once Caldas40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HuracanExpected goals in this matchOnce Caldas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.50

Huracan

1.37

Once Caldas

1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

1.88

creates per match

2.00

1.00

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

Huracan

1.88

Once Caldas

2.00

allows per match

Huracan

1.00

Once Caldas

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Huracan+0.00on par

Once Caldas+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huracan ↓

Once Caldas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Huracan or draw

60%

Huracan or Once Caldas

75%

Draw or Once Caldas

65%

Winning margin

Huracan wins by 2+

16%

Once Caldas wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Huracan 1+ goals

75%

Huracan 2+ goals

40%

Huracan 3+ goals

16%

Once Caldas 1+ goals

78%

Once Caldas 2+ goals

44%

Once Caldas 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Huracan (draw refunded)

46%

Once Caldas (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huracan at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

Once Caldas away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huracan attack 1.88 + Once Caldas defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.37

Once Caldas attack 2.00 + Huracan defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Huracan scores more

35%

level

25%

Once Caldas scores more

40%

Once Caldas at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Once Caldas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

D. Moreno

Huracan

9.0

Match Events

-5'

Yeiler Valencia

-5'

Luis Gómez

9'

Nehuén Paz

39'

M. MiljevicPenalty

40'

D. Moreno↳ M. Barrios

44'

Juan BisanzCard upgrade

45'

Juan Bisanz

46'

M. Tissera← R. Cabral

60'

H. Nervo← N. Paz

61'

I. Rojas← A. Garcia Castillo

65'

M. Barrios↳ L. Sanchez

68'

Matko MiljevicCard upgrade

73'

Matko Miljevic

75'

César Ibáñez

75'

César IbáñezRed card cancelled

75'

Mateo Zuleta

75'

Mateo ZuletaRed card cancelled

79'

E. Beltran← L. Sanchez

79'

J. A. Zapata Ramirez← M. Zuleta

79'

A. Urzi← C. Ibanez

84'

P. Gomez← M. Barrios

88'

E. Ramirez← T. Guidara

88'

D. Moreno↳ J. A. Zapata Ramirez

90+7'

Luciano Giménez

90+7'

James Aguirre

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HuracanOnce

Overview

63%Possession37%

16Total Shots14

1.75Expected Goals (xG)1.93

7Corners2

12Fouls14

Shots

16Total Shots14

7On Target7

5Off Target6

4Blocked1

11Inside Box10

5Outside Box4

Passing

63%Possession37%

352Total Passes216

257Accurate Passes122

73%Pass Accuracy56%

Goalkeeping

4Saves6

Discipline

12Fouls14

3Yellow Cards4

2Red Cards0

1Offsides2