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Once Caldas vs Deportivo Cali — Primera A 2025

Once Caldas
Once Caldas
Preview
23:10
Deportivo Cali
Deportivo Cali
9/13/2026Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 10Estadio Palogrande
Big match
48%
Once Caldas
model favours
48%26%26%

Deportivo Cali have won 4 in a row

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
55%
under 2.5 goals
49%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Once Caldas48%
×Draw26%
Deportivo Cali26%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Once Caldas
1.48
Deportivo Cali
1.01

Once Caldas creates 47% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 38 away

creates per match

Once Caldas
1.63
Deportivo Cali
0.95

allows per match

Once Caldas
1.07
Deportivo Cali
1.34

finishing

Once Caldas+0.00on par
Deportivo Cali+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Once Caldas ↓

Deportivo Cali →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Once Caldas or draw
74%
Once Caldas or Deportivo Cali
74%
Draw or Deportivo Cali
52%

Winning margin

Once Caldas wins by 2+
24%
Deportivo Cali wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Once Caldas 1+ goals
77%
Once Caldas 2+ goals
43%
Once Caldas 3+ goals
19%
Deportivo Cali 1+ goals
64%
Deportivo Cali 2+ goals
27%
Deportivo Cali 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Once Caldas (draw refunded)
65%
Deportivo Cali (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Once Caldas at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.07 · 41 matches

Deportivo Cali away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.34 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Once Caldas attack 1.63 + Deportivo Cali defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.48

Deportivo Cali attack 0.95 + Once Caldas defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Once Caldas scores more
48%
level
26%
Deportivo Cali scores more
26%

Once Caldas at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Once Caldas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Deportivo Cali score first in only 20% of matches
  • Once Caldas score first in only 23% of matches
  • 80% of Deportivo Cali’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Once Caldas outscore their xG (1.6 vs 1.1 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Once Caldas
Balanced
Deportivo Cali
Defensively solid
53%Possession50%
83%Pass accuracy80%
13.1Shots12.8
1.09xGBiggest gap0.96
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Once CaldasDeportivo Cali

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

3
Once Caldas
2
Draws
0
Deportivo Cali
Avg goals: 2BTTS: 40%
2–00–01–11–04–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Caldas
DLWDW
Cali
WWWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Once Caldas host Deportivo Cali

September 13, 2026: Once Caldas take on Deportivo Cali in Primera A. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Once Caldas host Deportivo Cali at Estadio Palogrande.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.