Once Caldas 1–0 Deportivo Cali: Result & Stats

Once Caldas

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Deportivo Cali

M. Garcia 16'

5/25/2025

Primera A · Apertura - 20Estadio Palogrande

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Once Caldas48%

×Draw26%

Deportivo Cali26%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Once CaldasExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Cali

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.01

Once Caldas

1.48

Deportivo Cali

1.01

Once Caldas creates 47% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 38 away

1.63

creates per match

0.95

1.07

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Once Caldas

1.63

Deportivo Cali

0.95

allows per match

Once Caldas

1.07

Deportivo Cali

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Once Caldas+0.00on par

Deportivo Cali+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Once Caldas ↓

Deportivo Cali →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Once Caldas or draw

74%

Once Caldas or Deportivo Cali

74%

Draw or Deportivo Cali

52%

Winning margin

Once Caldas wins by 2+

24%

Deportivo Cali wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Once Caldas 1+ goals

77%

Once Caldas 2+ goals

43%

Once Caldas 3+ goals

19%

Deportivo Cali 1+ goals

64%

Deportivo Cali 2+ goals

27%

Deportivo Cali 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Once Caldas (draw refunded)

65%

Deportivo Cali (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Once Caldas at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.07 · 41 matches

Deportivo Cali away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.34 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Once Caldas attack 1.63 + Deportivo Cali defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.48

Deportivo Cali attack 0.95 + Once Caldas defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Once Caldas scores more

48%

level

26%

Deportivo Cali scores more

26%

Once Caldas at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Once Caldas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28

M. Zuleta

Once Caldas · M

7.6

Match Events

15'

16'

18'

19'

33'

44'

46'

46'

I. Venecia← C. Graciano

58'

L. Palacios← M. Barrios

58'

J. Riquett← J. Malagon

62'

James Aguirre

69'

E. Beltran← A. Garcia Castillo

69'

G. Cabezas← V. Mejia

69'

J. Cantillo← F. Viafara

69'

E. Rodriguez← J. Cabal

77'

J. A. Zapata Ramirez← M. Zuleta

82'

J. Arango← A. Estupinan

83'

José Caldera

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OnceDeportivo

Overview

53%Possession47%

16Total Shots4

8Corners4

10Fouls10

Shots

16Total Shots4

5On Target1

10Off Target2

1Blocked1

7Inside Box2

9Outside Box2

Passing

53%Possession47%

416Total Passes377

357Accurate Passes316

86%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

10Fouls10

4Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

1Offsides2