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Deportivo Cali vs Once Caldas — Primera A 2025

Deportivo Cali
Deportivo Cali
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Once Caldas
Once Caldas
F. Aguilar 52'
L. Sanchez 84'
11/14/2025Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 20Estadio Deportivo Cali

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Deportivo Cali42%
×Draw31%
Once Caldas27%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Cali
1.10
Once Caldas
0.83

Deportivo Cali creates 33% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 39 away

creates per match

Deportivo Cali
1.08
Once Caldas
0.85

allows per match

Deportivo Cali
0.82
Once Caldas
1.13

finishing

Deportivo Cali+0.00on par
Once Caldas+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Cali ↓

Once Caldas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Deportivo Cali or draw
73%
Deportivo Cali or Once Caldas
69%
Draw or Once Caldas
58%

Winning margin

Deportivo Cali wins by 2+
17%
Once Caldas wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Deportivo Cali 1+ goals
67%
Deportivo Cali 2+ goals
30%
Deportivo Cali 3+ goals
10%
Once Caldas 1+ goals
56%
Once Caldas 2+ goals
20%
Once Caldas 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Cali (draw refunded)
60%
Once Caldas (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Cali at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.82 · 38 matches

Once Caldas away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.13 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Cali attack 1.08 + Once Caldas defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.10

Once Caldas attack 0.85 + Deportivo Cali defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Deportivo Cali scores more
42%
level
31%
Once Caldas scores more
27%

Deportivo Cali at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Deportivo Cali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12
J. AguirreOnce CaldasOnce Caldas · G
8.3

Match Events

45'
Matias Orozco
46'
J. Arango← J. Quinones
48'
Mateo Zuleta
52'
F. Aguilar↳ J. Martinez
58'
P. Gomez← M. Barrios
59'
E. Beltran← I. Rojas
69'
Joaquin Varela
75'
Juan Arango
75'
J. A. Zapata Ramirez← M. Zuleta
76'
J. Cardona← J. Riquett
76'
L. Palacios← E. Navarro
78'
R. Bustamante← M. Orozco
83'
J. Moreno← A. Estupinan
84'
L. Sanchez↳ L. Palacios

Possession

47%Deportivo

Shots

17Deportivo

Pass accuracy

51%Deportivo

Statistics

DeportivoOnce
Overview
47%Possession53%
17Total Shots13
1.71Expected Goals (xG)0.73
4Corners2
17Fouls8
Shots
17Total Shots13
5On Target4
10Off Target6
2Blocked3
12Inside Box2
5Outside Box11
Passing
47%Possession53%
412Total Passes489
341Accurate Passes389
83%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
3Saves4
Discipline
17Fouls8
3Yellow Cards1
3Offsides2

Match Recap: Deportivo Cali vs Once Caldas

Deportivo Cali and Once Caldas drew 1-1 in Primera A on November 14, 2025.

Goals: F. Aguilar (52'), L. Sanchez (84').

Once Caldas controlled possession (53%) and registered 13 shots to 17.

The match was played at Estadio Deportivo Cali in Palmira.