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Once Caldas vs Cucuta — Primera A 2025

Once Caldas
Once Caldas
Preview
01:15
Cucuta
Cucuta
7/27/2026Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 1Estadio Palogrande
Big match
57%
Once Caldas
model favours
57%23%20%

Once Caldas score first in only 23% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
54%
over 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Once Caldas57%
×Draw23%
Cucuta20%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Once Caldas
1.84
Cucuta
0.99

Once Caldas creates 86% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 14 away

creates per match

Once Caldas
1.62
Cucuta
0.93

allows per match

Once Caldas
1.05
Cucuta
2.07

finishing

Once Caldas+0.00on par
Cucuta+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Once Caldas ↓

Cucuta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Once Caldas or draw
80%
Once Caldas or Cucuta
77%
Draw or Cucuta
43%

Winning margin

Once Caldas wins by 2+
33%
Cucuta wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Once Caldas 1+ goals
84%
Once Caldas 2+ goals
55%
Once Caldas 3+ goals
28%
Cucuta 1+ goals
63%
Cucuta 2+ goals
26%
Cucuta 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Once Caldas (draw refunded)
74%
Cucuta (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Once Caldas at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.05 · 42 matches

Cucuta away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.07 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Once Caldas attack 1.62 + Cucuta defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.84

Cucuta attack 0.93 + Once Caldas defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Once Caldas scores more
57%
level
23%
Cucuta scores more
20%

Once Caldas at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Once Caldas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings
  • Once Caldas outscore their xG (1.5 vs 1.1 expected)
  • Cucuta fall short of their xG (0.8 vs 1.2 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Once Caldas
Balanced
Cucuta
Balanced
53%Possession47%
83%Pass accuracy77%
13.4ShotsBiggest gap8.9
1.09xG1.19
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Once CaldasCucuta

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

2
Once Caldas
2
Draws
1
Cucuta
Avg goals: 2.4BTTS: 80%
2–11–01–31–11–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Caldas
DLWDW
Cucuta
LDDDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Once Caldas vs Cucuta — Match Preview

Once Caldas face Cucuta on July 27, 2026 in this Primera A fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Once Caldas host Cucuta at Estadio Palogrande.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.