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Cucuta vs Once Caldas — Primera A 2021

Cucuta
Cucuta
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Once Caldas
Once Caldas
D. Restrepo 15'
E. Mosquera 53'
8/3/2019Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 4Estadio General Santander

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Cucuta38%
×Draw27%
Once Caldas35%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cucuta
1.29
Once Caldas
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 117 away

creates per match

Cucuta
1.33
Once Caldas
0.80

allows per match

Cucuta
1.67
Once Caldas
1.24

finishing

Cucuta+0.00on par
Once Caldas+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cucuta ↓

Once Caldas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Cucuta or draw
65%
Cucuta or Once Caldas
73%
Draw or Once Caldas
62%

Winning margin

Cucuta wins by 2+
17%
Once Caldas wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Cucuta 1+ goals
72%
Cucuta 2+ goals
37%
Cucuta 3+ goals
14%
Once Caldas 1+ goals
71%
Once Caldas 2+ goals
35%
Once Caldas 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Cucuta (draw refunded)
52%
Once Caldas (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cucuta at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

Once Caldas away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.24 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cucuta attack 1.33 + Once Caldas defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.29

Once Caldas attack 0.80 + Cucuta defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Cucuta scores more
38%
level
27%
Once Caldas scores more
35%

Cucuta at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Cucuta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
K. LondoñoOnce CaldasOnce Caldas · F
7.6

Match Events

15'
D. Restrepo↳ J. Agudelo
41'
Daniel Restrepo
45'
Felipe Correa
53'
E. Mosquera
69'
Elvis Mosquera
71'
Harrinson Mancilla
71'
Y. Carabalí← D. Restrepo
74'
C. Valencia← J. Agudelo
80'
E. Serje← J. Rodríguez
83'
D. Lemos← J. Carbonero
84'
E. Valencia← M. Pérez
89'
J. Clavijo← M. García
90'
Henry Obando
90'
Enrique Serje
90'
Harlin Suárez

Possession

37%Cucuta

Shots

7Cucuta

Pass accuracy

47%Cucuta

Statistics

CucutaOnce
Overview
37%Possession63%
7Total Shots18
2Corners7
17Fouls12
Shots
7Total Shots18
2On Target5
3Off Target9
2Blocked4
2Inside Box9
5Outside Box9
Passing
37%Possession63%
316Total Passes537
218Accurate Passes422
69%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
4Saves1
Discipline
17Fouls12
3Yellow Cards4
2Offsides4

Primera A: Cucuta 1–1 Once Caldas

Cucuta and Once Caldas drew 1-1 in Primera A on August 3, 2019.

Goals: D. Restrepo (15'), E. Mosquera (53').

Once Caldas controlled possession (63%) and registered 18 shots to 7.

The match was played at Estadio General Santander in Cucuta.