Cucuta 1–2 Once Caldas: Result & Stats | Primera A

Cucuta

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Once Caldas

J. Peralta 35' (pen)

D. Moreno 87', 62' (pen)

1/19/2026

Primera A · Apertura - 1Estadio General Santander

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Cucuta36%

×Draw27%

Once Caldas37%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CucutaExpected goals in this matchOnce Caldas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.24

Cucuta

1.23

Once Caldas

1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 40 away

1.33

creates per match

0.82

1.67

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Cucuta

1.33

Once Caldas

0.82

allows per match

Cucuta

1.67

Once Caldas

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cucuta+0.00on par

Once Caldas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cucuta ↓

Once Caldas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Cucuta or draw

63%

Cucuta or Once Caldas

73%

Draw or Once Caldas

64%

Winning margin

Cucuta wins by 2+

16%

Once Caldas wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Cucuta 1+ goals

71%

Cucuta 2+ goals

35%

Cucuta 3+ goals

13%

Once Caldas 1+ goals

71%

Once Caldas 2+ goals

35%

Once Caldas 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Cucuta (draw refunded)

50%

Once Caldas (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cucuta at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

Once Caldas away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.13 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cucuta attack 1.33 + Once Caldas defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.23

Once Caldas attack 0.82 + Cucuta defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Cucuta scores more

36%

level

27%

Once Caldas scores more

37%

Once Caldas at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Once Caldas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

F. Abadia

Cucuta · G

8.2

Match Events

6'

Sebastián Tamara

8'

Jaime Alvarado

27'

Armando Ballesteros

32'

Eduar ArízalasPenalty confirmed

35'

J. PeraltaPenalty

36'

Johan Esteban Beltran Montaño

46'

J. A. Zapata Ramirez← J. Beltran

46'

D. Quinones← M. Zuleta

53'

Jaime Peralta

53'

Jaime Peralta

53'

Jaime Peralta

59'

J. Agudelo← J. Ceballos

60'

V. Mejia← L. Berdugo

62'

D. MorenoPenalty

70'

P. Gomez← M. Barrios

73'

B. Montano← A. Ballesteros

73'

L. Rios← S. Tamara

73'

J. Valencia← E. Arizalas

81'

E. Navarro← J. D. Cuesta Santos

81'

I. Rojas← J. Alvarado

84'

87'

90+2'

90+6'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CucutaOnce

Overview

36%Possession64%

6Total Shots17

2Corners13

17Fouls12

Shots

6Total Shots17

4On Target10

2Off Target4

0Blocked3

3Inside Box11

3Outside Box6

Passing

36%Possession64%

264Total Passes462

214Accurate Passes418

81%Pass Accuracy90%

Goalkeeping

8Saves3

Discipline

17Fouls12

5Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards0

4Offsides3

Match Recap: Cucuta vs Once Caldas

Once Caldas beat Cucuta 2-1 in Primera A on January 19, 2026.

Goals: J. Peralta (35' pen), D. Moreno (62' pen, 87').

Once Caldas controlled possession (64%) and registered 17 shots to 6.

The match was played at Estadio General Santander in Cucuta.

Cucuta vs Once Caldas — Primera A 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Cucuta vs Once Caldas