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Once Caldas vs Bucaramanga — Primera A 2018

Once Caldas
Once Caldas
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Bucaramanga
Bucaramanga
8/11/2024Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 5Estadio Palogrande

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 168+ matches

Once Caldas46%
×Draw29%
Bucaramanga25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Once Caldas
1.27
Bucaramanga
0.87

Once Caldas creates 46% more chances

Season form · 171 home / 168 away

creates per match

Once Caldas
1.35
Bucaramanga
0.86

allows per match

Once Caldas
0.88
Bucaramanga
1.20

finishing

Once Caldas+0.00on par
Bucaramanga+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Once Caldas ↓

Bucaramanga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Once Caldas or draw
75%
Once Caldas or Bucaramanga
71%
Draw or Bucaramanga
54%

Winning margin

Once Caldas wins by 2+
21%
Bucaramanga wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Once Caldas 1+ goals
72%
Once Caldas 2+ goals
36%
Once Caldas 3+ goals
14%
Bucaramanga 1+ goals
58%
Bucaramanga 2+ goals
22%
Bucaramanga 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Once Caldas (draw refunded)
64%
Bucaramanga (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Once Caldas at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.88 · 171 matches

Bucaramanga away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.20 · 168 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Once Caldas attack 1.35 + Bucaramanga defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.27

Bucaramanga attack 0.86 + Once Caldas defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Once Caldas scores more
46%
level
29%
Bucaramanga scores more
25%

Once Caldas at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Once Caldas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera A: Once Caldas 2–1 Bucaramanga

Once Caldas beat Bucaramanga 2-1 in Primera A on August 11, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Palogrande in Manizales.