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Bucaramanga vs Once Caldas — Primera A 2018

Bucaramanga
Bucaramanga
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Once Caldas
Once Caldas
2/10/2024Primera APrimera A · Apertura - 5Estadio Alfonso López

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Bucaramanga42%
×Draw29%
Once Caldas29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bucaramanga
1.19
Once Caldas
0.93

Bucaramanga creates 28% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 10 away

creates per match

Bucaramanga
1.15
Once Caldas
0.92

allows per match

Bucaramanga
0.93
Once Caldas
1.23

finishing

Bucaramanga-0.29scores less
Once Caldas+0.28scores more

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bucaramanga ↓

Once Caldas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Bucaramanga or draw
71%
Bucaramanga or Once Caldas
71%
Draw or Once Caldas
58%

Winning margin

Bucaramanga wins by 2+
18%
Once Caldas wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Bucaramanga 1+ goals
70%
Bucaramanga 2+ goals
33%
Bucaramanga 3+ goals
12%
Once Caldas 1+ goals
61%
Once Caldas 2+ goals
24%
Once Caldas 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Bucaramanga (draw refunded)
59%
Once Caldas (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bucaramanga at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.93 · 7 matches

Once Caldas away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.23 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bucaramanga attack 1.15 + Once Caldas defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.19

Once Caldas attack 0.92 + Bucaramanga defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Bucaramanga scores more
42%
level
29%
Once Caldas scores more
29%

Bucaramanga at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Bucaramanga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bucaramanga vs Once Caldas

Bucaramanga and Once Caldas drew 1-1 in Primera A on February 10, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Alfonso López in Bucaramanga.