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Once Caldas vs Bogota FC — Copa Colombia 2019

Once Caldas
Once Caldas
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Bogota FC
Bogota FC
3/22/2024Copa ColombiaCopa Colombia · 1st RoundEstadio Palogrande

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Once Caldas61%
×Draw23%
Bogota FC16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Once Caldas
1.76
Bogota FC
0.75

Once Caldas creates 135% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 10 away

creates per match

Once Caldas
1.92
Bogota FC
0.50

allows per match

Once Caldas
1.00
Bogota FC
1.60

finishing

Once Caldas+0.00on par
Bogota FC+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Once Caldas ↓

Bogota FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Once Caldas or draw
84%
Once Caldas or Bogota FC
77%
Draw or Bogota FC
39%

Winning margin

Once Caldas wins by 2+
35%
Bogota FC wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Once Caldas 1+ goals
83%
Once Caldas 2+ goals
52%
Once Caldas 3+ goals
26%
Bogota FC 1+ goals
53%
Bogota FC 2+ goals
17%
Bogota FC 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Once Caldas (draw refunded)
80%
Bogota FC (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Once Caldas at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.00 · 12 matches

Bogota FC away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.60 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Once Caldas attack 1.92 + Bogota FC defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.76

Bogota FC attack 0.50 + Once Caldas defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Once Caldas scores more
61%
level
23%
Bogota FC scores more
16%

Once Caldas at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Once Caldas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Copa Colombia: Once Caldas 4–1 Bogota FC

Once Caldas beat Bogota FC 4-1 in Copa Colombia on March 22, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Palogrande in Manizales.