Bogota FC 0–2 Once Caldas: Result & Stats

Bogota FC

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Once Caldas

3/6/2024

Copa Colombia · 1st RoundEstadio Metropolitano de Techo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Bogota FC37%

×Draw28%

Once Caldas36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bogota FCExpected goals in this matchOnce Caldas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.19

Bogota FC

1.21

Once Caldas

1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 12 away

1.00

creates per match

0.67

1.70

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Bogota FC

1.00

Once Caldas

0.67

allows per match

Bogota FC

1.70

Once Caldas

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bogota FC+0.00on par

Once Caldas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bogota FC ↓

Once Caldas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Bogota FC or draw

64%

Bogota FC or Once Caldas

72%

Draw or Once Caldas

63%

Winning margin

Bogota FC wins by 2+

16%

Once Caldas wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Bogota FC 1+ goals

70%

Bogota FC 2+ goals

34%

Bogota FC 3+ goals

12%

Once Caldas 1+ goals

70%

Once Caldas 2+ goals

33%

Once Caldas 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Bogota FC (draw refunded)

51%

Once Caldas (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bogota FC at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.70 · 10 matches

Once Caldas away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.42 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bogota FC attack 1.00 + Once Caldas defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.21

Once Caldas attack 0.67 + Bogota FC defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Bogota FC scores more

37%

level

28%

Once Caldas scores more

36%

Bogota FC at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Bogota FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff