Once Caldas 1–0 Águilas Doradas: Result & Stats

Once Caldas

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Águilas Doradas

M. Barrios 53'

7/20/2024

Primera A · Clausura - 2Estadio Palogrande

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Once Caldas45%

×Draw28%

Águilas Doradas27%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Once CaldasExpected goals in this matchÁguilas Doradas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

0.95

Once Caldas

1.30

Águilas Doradas

0.95

Once Caldas creates 37% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 48 away

1.42

creates per match

0.94

0.97

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Once Caldas

1.42

Águilas Doradas

0.94

allows per match

Once Caldas

0.97

Águilas Doradas

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Once Caldas+0.00on par

Águilas Doradas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Once Caldas ↓

Águilas Doradas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Once Caldas or draw

73%

Once Caldas or Águilas Doradas

72%

Draw or Águilas Doradas

55%

Winning margin

Once Caldas wins by 2+

20%

Águilas Doradas wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Once Caldas 1+ goals

73%

Once Caldas 2+ goals

37%

Once Caldas 3+ goals

14%

Águilas Doradas 1+ goals

61%

Águilas Doradas 2+ goals

25%

Águilas Doradas 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Once Caldas (draw refunded)

62%

Águilas Doradas (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Once Caldas at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.97 · 60 matches

Águilas Doradas away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.19 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Once Caldas attack 1.42 + Águilas Doradas defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.30

Águilas Doradas attack 0.94 + Once Caldas defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Once Caldas scores more

45%

level

28%

Águilas Doradas scores more

27%

Once Caldas at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Once Caldas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

J. Aguirre

Once Caldas · G

7.7

Match Events

29'

Juan Patiño

33'

Mateo García

46'

A. García← L. Ríos

53'

M. Barrios↳ J. Patiño

57'

Jesús Rivas← T. Salazar

59'

Jaen Pineda

61'

Fredy Salazar

65'

J. Cardona← J. Patiño

70'

J. Ávalo← M. Garavito

70'

D. Lemos← A. Estacio

73'

J. Zapata← L. Palacios

79'

Jorge Cardona

83'

Juan Ávalo

86'

J. Hernández← D. Moreno

86'

J. Contreras← M. Barrios

86'

J. Ramos← A. Vásquez

86'

R. Benítez← V. Moreno

90+3'

Joel Contreras

90'

Jorge Ramos

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OnceÁguilas

Overview

44%Possession56%

11Total Shots12

2Corners7

14Fouls10

Shots

11Total Shots12

3On Target5

6Off Target4

2Blocked3

10Inside Box5

1Outside Box7

Passing

44%Possession56%

284Total Passes364

226Accurate Passes310

80%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls10

4Yellow Cards4

2Offsides0